Markets Reprice Fed Path as 2026 Rate-Hike Odds Rise to 31% After U.S. CPI Increase

Market expectations shifted sharply after U.S. Consumer Price Index inflation rose to its highest level since May 2023, with the source stating that the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 climbed to 31%, a new high. The hotter inflation data also coincided with the Nasdaq 100 falling more than 2% during the session, underscoring pressure on risk assets. According to the sources, markets had only months earlier priced in more than three rate cuts this year, but those expected cuts have now been fully priced out. For digital asset markets, the repricing matters because reduced expectations for easing and the possibility of tighter monetary policy can weigh on liquidity, investor risk appetite, and cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.

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