Iran Strait of Hormuz Blockade Plan Raises Risks for Oil Supply and Regional Stability

Cited market sources reported that Iran halted or suspended indirect talks with the United States, while separate reports described either a plan, a threat, or a decision to fully block the Strait of Hormuz, though no operational details, timeline, or official confirmation were provided. In parallel, the U.S. Treasury and OFAC barred Americans from seeking safe-passage guarantees from Iran, including unpaid arrangements, and sanctioned the newly formed Strait of the Persian Gulf Authority over proposed transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. Markets reacted to the perceived risk of disrupted energy flows and wider regional escalation: WTI crude was reported up 5% to $91.74 per barrel, later 6.00% to $92.61, and elsewhere as rising more than 7%, while China’s SC crude main contract gained 2.00% to 596.50 yuan per barrel. The U.S. Dollar Index rose to 99.23, U.S. stock index futures turned lower, the Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.8%, and U.S. Treasury yields climbed, with the 10-year nearing 4.5% and the 2-year at 4.07%, as higher oil prices reinforced inflation concerns. On Polymarket, odds tied to passage were 8% before June 15 and 34% before June 30, indicating increased market-implied expectations around the issue, while the older record also noted that President Donald Trump had signaled negotiations, leaving markets to weigh disruption risks against possible diplomatic de-escalation.