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Galaxy Launches OTC Prediction Markets Desk for Institutional Investors

Galaxy Launches OTC Prediction Markets Desk for Institutional Investors

According to company statements and Bloomberg, Galaxy’s new institutional prediction-markets desk structures private event swaps on Kalshi and Polymarket, highlighted by a $10 million trade tied to U.S. digital asset legislation.

Fact Check
Galaxy's own newsroom announcement directly confirms the launch of the institutional OTC prediction markets desk targeting hedge funds and family offices, the $10M trade with Arca on Kalshi, and hedging capabilities across equities and commodities. Crypto Briefing and The Block (including its X post) corroborate the Clarity Act linkage of the trade.
Summary

Galaxy Digital has launched an over-the-counter prediction markets trading desk for institutional investors through its global markets desk, covering non-sports event contracts listed on Kalshi and Polymarket. The Nasdaq-listed firm completed an inaugural $10 million trade with crypto hedge fund Arca tied to whether the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 will pass Congress before 2027. Galaxy structures these transactions as event swaps under existing ISDA agreements, allowing institutions to gain exposure without opening accounts on retail-facing prediction platforms or publicly revealing positions through onchain wallets. Bloomberg reported the Arca trade was nearly five times the volume of a comparable Kalshi contract, underscoring the gap between institutional and retail liquidity. Galaxy also said it plans to let clients combine prediction market positions with hedges across multiple asset classes and expand to additional venues over time.

Terms & Concepts
  • OTC: OTC stands for over-the-counter trading, where counterparties transact directly rather than through a public exchange, often for larger or customized deals.
  • Prediction markets: Markets where participants trade contracts tied to future event outcomes, with prices reflecting expectations about those results.
  • ISDA agreements: Standard legal contracts commonly used in derivatives markets that set the terms for swaps and other bilateral trading arrangements between institutions.