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Morningstar values SpaceX at $780 billion as filing points to $75 billion IPO

Morningstar values SpaceX at $780 billion as filing points to $75 billion IPO

Goldman Sachs linked the reported roughly $1.78 trillion IPO valuation to AI revenue rising to $322 billion by 2030, while Morningstar’s fair-value estimate remained far lower.

Fact Check
All components of the claim are independently corroborated. Morningstar's own coverage page explicitly states the $780B valuation. Reuters confirms Morningstar's valuation is roughly half the IPO target. CNBC reports the $1.77 trillion IPO target at $135/share. CoinDesk and other outlets confirm the S-1 filing disclosing 18,712 BTC on SpaceX's balance sheet. Reuters also confirms the ~$75 billion IPO raise targeting a Nasdaq debut. The claim's stated range '$1.77 trillion to $1.8 trillion' aligns with the most recent CNBC figure ($1.77T) and earlier Reuters figure (~$1.75T-$1.8T).
Summary

Morningstar initiated coverage of SpaceX with a $780 billion fair-value estimate, well below the roughly $1.77 trillion to $1.78 trillion valuation implied by the company’s reported IPO plans. CNBC reported that SpaceX aims to list on Nasdaq on June 12 at $135 per share, selling about 555.6 million shares to raise roughly $75 billion, with an overallotment option of 83.33 million shares worth about $11.2 billion; separate reporting said the deal could raise as much as $86 billion including additional shares. Goldman Sachs told prospective investors that SpaceX’s AI unit could grow from $3.2 billion in revenue in 2025 to $322 billion by 2030, while total revenue could rise from $18.7 billion last year to $474 billion by 2030, and the Financial Times said those assumptions underpin the bank’s core case for a roughly $1.78 trillion valuation. The Financial Times also noted that xAI’s prospectus showed a $6.4 billion loss in 2025, underscoring the gap between current profitability and the scale of growth embedded in the offering case.

Terms & Concepts
  • IPO: An initial public offering is a company’s first sale of shares to public investors on a stock exchange.
  • Fair-value estimate: An analyst’s assessment of what a company or asset is worth based on underlying fundamentals rather than market demand.
  • Roadshow: A series of investor presentations held before a share sale to market the offering and explain the company’s financial outlook.