A June 5 Boston Fed study said a historically significant 33% oil-price shock would raise U.S. inflation but have little effect on nationwide employment, underscoring how changes in the U.S. energy mix have made the economy more resilient than it was in the 1970s. The research said better energy efficiency and higher domestic crude output have reduced the risk of a 1970s-style stagflation episode, even as it warned that inflation caused by an energy shock could be more persistent. The findings come as markets expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates in June. Morgan Stanley projects rates will remain unchanged this year, with cuts starting in 2027.