Rate futures rose from 48% before the data, while Kalshi traders put the chance of a Fed hike before July 2027 at 64% as markets price a more resilient economy.
Strong U.S. jobs data pushed up market expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening, with rate futures pricing a 63% chance of a December Fed hike, up from 48% before the release. Kalshi, a prediction market, also showed traders assigning a 64% probability to a Fed rate increase before July 2027. The shift suggests investors are reassessing the economy as more resilient than previously expected and reducing bets on easier monetary policy.