A Reuters poll of 102 economists and comments from JPMorgan’s David Kelly point to no June rate cut, with persistent inflation and fiscal uncertainty seen keeping Fed policy restrictive into 2026.
Most economists in a Reuters survey expect the Federal Reserve to keep its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75% through the rest of 2026, reflecting expectations that inflation will remain persistent. Among 102 economists polled from June 4 to June 9, 72 said rates would stay at that level through year-end 2026, and all respondents said no cut is expected after the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, Kevin Warsh's first as chair. JPMorgan’s David Kelly also said the Fed is expected to hold rates steady at the June meeting, citing a cautious stance as officials weigh inflation and fiscal uncertainty. Elevated rates could restrain growth, reduce appetite for riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies, and leave digital-asset traders focused on liquidity and volatility tied to the policy outlook.