Crane Zeng estimates U.S. users generated $11 billion to $34 billion in offshore prediction-market volume, with Polymarket accounting for $11 billion to $27 billion despite CFTC restrictions.
Americans are reportedly still trading heavily on offshore prediction-market platforms that are meant to block U.S. users, highlighting the difficulty of enforcing cross-border crypto market rules. A Crane Zeng report estimated that U.S. users generated roughly $11 billion to $34 billion in offshore prediction-market volume, with Polymarket alone accounting for $11 billion to $27 billion in what the firm called a conservative estimate. The report said offshore access by U.S. users is concentrated in onchain protocols such as Polymarket, partly because crypto wallets can be used without KYC checks. Using Dune Analytics data, Crane Zeng estimated that 12.5% to 31.5% of U.S. prediction-market volume occurs on offshore venues and that about 30% of Polymarket volume came from U.S.-based users during the measured period. The findings underscore potential legal exposure for U.S. participants and broader questions about market liquidity, oversight and price discovery as trading shifts outside regulated channels, even as regulated U.S. venues have narrowed the volume gap with offshore rivals.