A June 13 resolution clarification reversed an apparently settled market, wiping out positions tied to a Strategy Bitcoin sale and intensifying debate over settlement finality on prediction platforms.
Polymarket is facing renewed criticism after a June 13 resolution clarification reversed what many traders believed was a settled market on whether Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) would sell any Bitcoin by May 31. After Strategy disclosed on June 1 that it had sold Bitcoin during the prior week, and a company filing indicated the sale occurred before May 31, many traders expected the contract to resolve to “Yes.” Polymarket instead said the “YES” outcome required public disclosure of the sale before 11:59 p.m. ET on May 31, and the later clarification effectively voided positions that had appeared to be winners. The decision zeroed about $3.8 million in positions across 1,838 accounts and erased what King’s College London student Hunter Guo said was an expected profit of about $35,000. The episode has fueled trader backlash over retroactive rule interpretations and reopened broader questions about finality in prediction-market settlements, including comparisons with disputes involving the UMA oracle and other Bitcoin-related markets.