Serenity said chart-based analysis mainly reinforces confirmation bias and helps with entry timing, while fundamentals, catalysts, macro events and float dynamics drive bigger stock moves.
Serenity argued that technical analysis functions more like traders' "astrology" than a reliable price-discovery tool, saying it often reflects confirmation bias and market psychology instead of determining where assets trade. He added that chart analysis may help identify entry points, but said a stock's real upside is driven more by fundamentals, catalysts, revenue outlook, macro events, earnings, float dynamics and game theory. To make the case, he pointed to SIVE's roughly 1900% rise and AXTI's about 8000% gain, and also cited SPCE, AXTI and IREN, describing such moves as products of underlying business and market forces rather than predictive technical setups. He said IREN also faces the need to absorb a $6 billion ATM issuance, underscoring the role of supply dynamics in shaping price action.