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Polymarket traders see multimillion-dollar swings after Spain-Cape Verde ends 0-0

Polymarket traders see multimillion-dollar swings after Spain-Cape Verde ends 0-0

The scoreless draw overturned heavily one-sided market positioning, including a reported $1.6 million loss on Spain and a newly created account’s roughly $9 million gain betting against a Spain win.

Fact Check
The core event is confirmed by multiple sources including the primary Decrypt article and official Polymarket Sports posts: Spain drew Cape Verde 0-0 in a major upset, a trader lost a seven-figure sum on a Spain-win bet, and 'Fishalive' profited ~$4.31M betting against Spain at ~9¢/share. Block Beats, citing Predict.fun, specifically attributes a $1.6M loss to trader 'avenger,' matching the claim's headline figure. The claim's framing that a single '$1 million bet' produced exactly $4.31M profit is slightly imprecise (Fishalive's stake was ~$420K-$470K, not $1M; the $1M figure belongs to the Spain-win loser), but the $4.31M profit figure and the >1,000% return are accurate. The claim conflates figures across different traders, yet every component is supported by sourced evidence.
Summary

A 0-0 draw between World Cup favorite Spain and newcomer Cape Verde upended heavily one-sided prediction-market positioning and produced multimillion-dollar swings on Polymarket. Predict.fun data said pre-match odds implied a 92% chance of a Spain win, 6% for a draw and 2% for a Cape Verde win, making the result the tournament’s biggest upset so far. Reports said trader avenger lost $1.6 million on a large Spain position, while Decrypt said user Fishalive bought about 4.7 million shares at an average 9 cents on Spain not winning and made about $4.31 million. Odaily, citing on-chain analyst Ember, said a newly created wallet spent $4.22 million on positions that Spain would not win and that Cape Verde would win with a -2.5 handicap, with the combined position later reaching $13.28 million for an implied profit of $9.06 million. The size, timing and success of that days-old account prompted onchain investigators to question whether it reflected unusual luck or possible inside information.

Terms & Concepts
  • prediction market: A market where traders buy and sell positions tied to the outcome of future events.
  • handicap: A betting spread that gives one side a goal advantage.
  • inside information: Material nonpublic information used in trading.