SpaceX options debut fuels volatility debate as August unlock nears

A $29 million short position added to scrutiny over SpaceX’s valuation as investors weighed its thin float, heavy derivatives activity and a possible August share unlock.

40d ago

Fact Check

Each element of the claim is corroborated. The CNBC article confirms the options debut fueling a volatility/tail-risk debate. Cryptopolitan confirms the post-surge pullback, the jump in options volume, and a float below 5%. Ansem's own X post confirms he views the shares as undervalued/underpriced given the supply-demand skew and explicitly flags a ~30% August unlock as a likely first local top. Business Insider independently confirms the August lock-up supply dynamics. The phrase 'roughly 30% August share unlock' aligns with Ansem's '30% unlock in August' and reports that supply roughly doubles by late August; the only minor nuance is that other sources frame the cumulative late-August/September releases somewhat differently, but Ansem's specific 30%/August framing matches the claim's attribution to him.

Summary

SpaceX’s June 17 options debut intensified debate over volatility, valuation and supply-demand dynamics after its IPO, while Binance said trading in its SpaceX-linked perpetual futures contract also surged. Susquehanna strategist Chris Murphy said the options market implies about a 15% chance of another 50% gain by September and a 13% chance of a 50% drop over the same period. Shares fell 3.57% on Thursday after a 5% drop on Wednesday, but remained nearly 37% above the $135 IPO price, valuing the company at about $2.44 trillion to $2.5 trillion. Investors are weighing a float below 5%, options volume of 1.26 million contracts by the third day of trading, and reports that around 20% or 30% of locked shares could become eligible for sale after second-quarter earnings, with crypto KOL Ansem pointing to a roughly 30% unlock in August as a possible local peak. A newly disclosed $29 million short position by trader VBVIT underscored skepticism over SpaceX’s valuation and highlighted how bearish bets could add to volatility. Separately, Binance said its SPCXUSDT perpetual futures contract logged more than $5.6 billion in 24-hour volume as of June 13, more than $9 billion in cumulative volume and over 60% of SpaceX perpetual futures trading across centralized and decentralized venues, underscoring strong retail appetite for equity-linked crypto products.

Terms & Concepts

float: Shares available for public trading.
lock-up expiration: Date when restricted shares can be sold.
perpetual futures: Futures contracts with no expiry date.