Officials said the size of any windfall is hard to forecast, while CNBC said SpaceX’s vesting and tax structure could spread collections over time instead of creating a single IPO spike.
California could collect more tax revenue if SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic go public, though officials said the eventual scale is difficult to predict. CNBC reported that SpaceX’s RSU (restricted stock unit) single-trigger vesting structure and long-term tax prepayments may mean the state sees a steadier stream of revenue rather than a sharp one-time jump tied to an IPO. That contrasts with Facebook’s 2012 IPO, which generated about $1.3 billion in California state tax revenue and serves as a benchmark for how large public listings can affect state finances.