Wilson said the Fed’s latest meeting was an initial step toward rebuilding credibility, but shrinking reserves and lower repo usage could still tighten market liquidity and raise July stock volatility.
Morgan Stanley CIO and chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson said liquidity conditions, rather than additional rate hikes, remain the main near-term risk for U.S. stocks. He said the FOMC meeting led by Fed Chair Warsh was a necessary first step in rebuilding Federal Reserve credibility, and added that the S&P 500-to-gold ratio has risen nearly 40% since Warsh’s February nomination. Even so, Wilson warned that shrinking reserves and lower Treasury repo usage could tighten liquidity, leaving U.S. stocks vulnerable to volatility in July and potentially opening the door to a pullback.