CLARITY Act stays on Senate calendar as passage odds slip amid timing pressure

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act remains active in the Senate, but its path has narrowed as no floor vote is scheduled, no merged Banking-Agriculture text has been released publicly and unresolved disputes continue over ethics rules, stablecoin rewards and the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act. Galaxy Research cut its estimate that the bill will become law in 2026 to 50-50 from 60% three weeks earlier, citing Senate scheduling pressure rather than a collapse in support. H.R. 3633 is listed on the Senate Legislative Calendar as No. 423. The House passed H.R. 3633 by a 294-134 vote on July 17, 2025, and the Senate Banking Committee advanced a substantially revised version 15-9 on May 14 after months of negotiations. The proposal would divide oversight between the SEC and the CFTC, build on the stablecoin framework established under the GENIUS Act, set standards for when a digital asset is treated as a commodity or a security, and include protections for certain noncustodial developers and infrastructure providers. Supporters including Senator Cynthia Lummis, Ripple and a coalition of more than 200 companies and advocacy groups say the bill would provide regulatory clarity, strengthen consumer protections and help keep digital-asset innovation, investment and jobs in the United States. Opponents from the banking sector, including JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, argue crypto firms should not receive bank-like advantages without equivalent anti-money-laundering and capital requirements. Analysts and negotiators say the main immediate obstacle is floor time, with ethics demands from Senators Ruben Gallego and Cory Booker, expected Republican no votes from Josh Hawley and Rand Paul, and pressure to revise BRCA language still in play.