Economists pivot to forecasting Fed rate hikes over cuts for first time since 2023
The shift in expectations marks a notable turn in the U.S. rate outlook, with Reuters saying more economists now see further tightening than easing.
Fact Check
The syndicated Thomson Reuters report (WTVB, June 26, 2026) of the June 23-25 Reuters economist poll explicitly states that 15 forecasters expect at least one Fed hike this year versus 9 predicting cuts, marking the first time hikes outnumbered cuts since 2023. This matches the claim exactly. The May 19, 2026 Reuters poll documents the prior trend of fading cut expectations, providing consistent context. The direct Reuters pages were geo-blocked but the syndicated copy carries identical Reuters-sourced content.
Summary
More economists are now forecasting Federal Reserve rate hikes rather than cuts for the first time since 2023, signaling a meaningful shift in expectations for U.S. monetary policy. The change, reported by Reuters, suggests views on inflation, growth and the interest-rate path have turned more hawkish, a dynamic that can ripple across risk assets including cryptocurrencies as investors reassess borrowing costs and liquidity conditions.
Terms & Concepts
- Federal Reserve: U.S. central bank setting interest rates
- rate hikes: Increases in benchmark borrowing costs
- monetary policy: Central bank actions guiding credit and inflation