The ratings firm said the US economy remains resilient but flagged exposure to trade policy shifts and longer-term fiscal pressure from deficits, interest costs and aging-related spending.
S&P Global Ratings kept the United States at AA+, one notch below AAA, with a stable outlook, citing the economy’s resilience, solid revenue collection and credible monetary policy while warning that trade policy shifts could affect future fiscal stability. The firm said deficits remain high but broadly stable, with economic strength helping support revenues, including from tariffs, even as exposure to changes in trade policy adds uncertainty. S&P expects US net general debt to approach 100% of GDP as interest costs and aging-related spending rise structurally. It also highlighted persistent political polarization and limited bipartisan cooperation on deficit reduction, though it said Congress is still likely to keep resolving debt ceiling stand-offs because failing to authorize more borrowing would have severe consequences for financial markets and the economy. The rating could come under pressure within two years if lawmakers fail to contain spending or manage revenue effects from tax code changes. All three major ratings agencies now rank the US one level below Triple-A with stable outlooks, and S&P was the first major agency to cut the US from AAA in 2011.