Record long-term holder supply and spot ETF-driven market shifts support arguments for an earlier Bitcoin trough, though some analysts still see deeper declines, a later bottom or policy-related risks.
Bitcoin’s market outlook is divided, with Samson Mow arguing the cycle bottom may already have formed because the traditional four-year halving cycle appears to be breaking down. He pointed to Bitcoin reaching a record high 37 days before the April 2024 halving and said spot ETF inflows changed market structure. Supporting the constructive case, Glassnode-tracked long-term holder supply has climbed to a record roughly 14.7 million BTC, which Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten said has historically coincided with market bottoms. Other analysts are less convinced. 10x Research’s Markus Thielen sees a possible bottom near $55,000 in the August-October period, Arthur Hayes expects Bitcoin could fall to about $40,000 in the coming months, James Van Straten said the asset may still need to drop more than 15% with $50,000-$54,000 as a key battleground, and Lebit Mining Pool founder Jiang Zhuoer expects a bottom between October and December 2026 in a $42,000-$44,000 range. Grayscale’s Zach Pandl also warned that if the US CLARITY Act is not passed this year, deleveraging by Bitcoin treasury firms such as Strategy could last longer. The differing views highlight uncertainty over whether institutional demand through spot ETFs and on-chain accumulation have reshaped Bitcoin’s historical price cycle or whether a deeper correction is still ahead.