World Cup trading lifted June notional volumes to more than $31 billion at Kalshi and a record $10.8 billion at Polymarket, while speculation over FIFA’s July 19 halftime show added further event-contract activity.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup has driven a broad surge in prediction market activity, with June notional volume rising to more than $31 billion on Kalshi and a record $10.8 billion on Polymarket’s international platform, while Polymarket’s U.S. venue climbed to more than $3.5 billion and newly launched Rothera handled $2 billion, according to user-collected Dune Analytics data and Bank of America. Daily volume on Kalshi has stayed above $1 billion since the tournament began on June 11, and open interest remained elevated at above $1 billion on Kalshi and just under $400 million on Polymarket. The trading boom has extended beyond match outcomes to side markets including FIFA’s July 19 World Cup halftime show at MetLife Stadium, where Justin Bieber was the leading prediction-market pick for an unannounced final performer after FIFA President Gianni Infantino teased a “super-mega top global artist”; Bieber contracts were last at 82 cents on Kalshi and 70% on Polymarket, where more than $213,000 had been wagered. As Team USA prepared to face Belgium in the round of 16 on Monday night, traders had already wagered more than $64 million on Kalshi and $122 million on Polymarket on whether the U.S. would win the tournament, despite implied odds of just 4.3% and 3%, respectively.