The bank raised its USD/JPY forecasts to 162 in three months, 163 in six months and 165 in a year, saying higher U.S. yields and gradual Bank of Japan tightening should keep pressure on the yen.
Goldman Sachs has adopted a more bearish view on the Japanese yen, forecasting it will weaken to 165 per dollar within a year even if Japanese authorities intervene in currency markets. The bank also raised its USD/JPY forecasts to 162 in three months and 163 in six months, from 160 and 158 previously, arguing that higher-for-longer U.S. yields, low U.S. recession risk, Japanese fiscal pressure and only gradual Bank of Japan tightening continue to favor yen weakness. Goldman said any intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance would likely have only a temporary effect unless there is an unexpected negative U.S. growth shock or a more aggressive BoJ policy shift.