OPEC+ raised its August output target by 188,000 barrels a day as Gulf exports recovered, while weak Chinese demand and the return of stranded barrels added to oversupply concerns.
Iran could face difficulty selling down oil inventories even if restrictions on its energy imports are lifted, as weak Chinese buying and rising supply from OPEC+ and Gulf producers weigh on the market. OPEC+ agreed to raise August output quotas by 188,000 barrels a day, the fifth straight monthly increase, bringing cumulative quota additions to about 940,000 barrels a day since the war began. At the same time, Gulf oil flows have recovered, with Saudi Arabia shipping about 6.3 million barrels a day last week and the UAE exporting 3.94 million barrels a day of crude and condensate in June, according to Kpler. Analysts and banks including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs warned continued supply growth could contribute to a market glut next year, while China has not materially increased purchases and its imports from Iran and the wider Middle East have fallen sharply.