JPMorgan cuts Q4 2026 gold forecast 25% to $4,500 an ounce

Gold slipped to $4,141.26 as a stronger U.S. dollar pressured bullion, while JPMorgan lowered its earlier roughly $6,000 forecast, citing softer demand and greater sensitivity to real rates.

Summary

JPMorgan has cut its fourth-quarter 2026 gold price forecast by about 25% to $4,500 an ounce from roughly $6,000, reflecting a more cautious near-term view even as it remains constructive longer term. The bank said weaker demand from key buying sectors and greater sensitivity to real-rate moves could keep gold rangebound in the second half, and it projected an average of $4,300 in the third quarter of this year. In the market, spot gold fell 0.58% to $4,141.26 an ounce as the U.S. dollar rose 0.3%, though losses were limited after June labor data showed slower job growth and downward payroll revisions, easing expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate increase.

Terms & Concepts
  • real-rate moves: Changes in inflation-adjusted interest rates
  • spot gold: Current market price for immediate delivery
  • CME FedWatch Tool: Market-based gauge of expected Fed rate moves