Big Tech AI capex to exceed U.S. defense spending by 2027, Morgan Stanley says

A Morgan Stanley chart based on Congressional Budget Office data shows Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle narrowing the gap from 1.45% versus 2.85% of GDP in 2025.

Summary

Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle are on track for AI capital expenditures to surpass U.S. defense spending as a share of GDP by 2027, according to a Morgan Stanley chart built on U.S. Congressional Budget Office data. The comparison highlights how rapidly infrastructure investment tied to artificial intelligence is scaling. In 2025, the five companies' AI capex (spending on long-term assets such as data centers and chips) is estimated at about 1.45% of GDP, compared with 2.85% for defense spending, and the gap narrows sharply in 2026 before crossing over in 2027.

Terms & Concepts
  • AI capex: Capital spending on AI infrastructure
  • GDP: Gross domestic product, total economic output