BNP Paribas said merger speculation may be overestimating the case for a deal, citing cash burn, regulatory risk and execution hurdles at Tesla even as prediction-market odds weakened.
Polymarket pricing showed traders sharply lowered the implied probability of Tesla and SpaceX officially announcing a merger by Sept. 30, 2026, while BNP Paribas analysts argued investor optimism tied to merger speculation may be too upbeat. The odds fell to 10%, down 30% over 24 hours, signaling weaker near-term conviction in that outcome on the prediction market. The same monitoring showed odds for an announcement by Dec. 31, 2026 at 25%, down 18%. BNP Paribas maintained an Underperform rating and a $280 target price on Tesla, saying a potential merger would be complicated by both companies' heavy cash burn and significant regulatory risks, and warning Tesla faces demanding KPIs over the next two years in robotaxi and Optimus. The earlier report also referenced prior news that SpaceX will join the Nasdaq 100 on July 7, a separate development noted alongside the merger-market moves.