The company narrowed several second-quarter operating ranges, flagged unprecedented commodity-price volatility in working capital, and said Trading & Optimisation in Integrated Gas should be significantly higher than Q1’26.
Shell updated its second-quarter 2026 outlook ahead of results due on July 30, 2026, highlighting the impact of the Middle East conflict on Qatari volumes, stronger expected Trading & Optimisation in Integrated Gas, and continued volatility across commodity markets. In Integrated Gas, production is now expected at 610 - 650 kboe/d, versus 909 kboe/d in Q1’26, while LNG liquefaction volumes are seen at 7.4 - 7.8 MT. Upstream production is guided to 1,750 - 1,850 kboe/d, Marketing sales volumes to 2,550 - 2,650 kb/d, and Chemicals and Products refinery utilisation to around 100% with chemicals utilisation at 80% - 84%. The company indicated indicative refining margin at about $20/bbl and indicative chemicals margin at about $240/tonne, but said realised refining and chemicals margins are lower than the calculated IRM / ICM because of market dislocations. Shell also said working capital for the group is expected at $1 billion to $6 billion, reflecting the impact of unprecedented volatility in commodity prices, while tax paid is seen at $2.6 billion to $3.4 billion and financial derivative instrument movements at $(1) billion to $4 billion. By segment, Marketing adjusted earnings are expected to be in line with Q1’26, Trading & Optimisation in Chemicals and Products is expected to be in line with Q1’26, Renewables and Energy Solutions adjusted earnings are guided to $(0.3) billion to $0.3 billion, and Corporate adjusted earnings to $(0.7) billion to $(0.5) billion. Shell said the company-compiled consensus managed by Vara Research is expected to be published on July 22, 2026, and added that, in light of the ongoing situation in the Middle East, full-year price and margin sensitivities do not necessarily reflect realised margin movements in an individual quarter.