After a Paris appeals court restored her eligibility following a 2025 embezzlement conviction, Marine Le Pen launched her fourth presidential bid with Jordan Bardella as prediction markets sharply repriced her chances.
Marine Le Pen has formally entered France’s 2027 presidential election after a Paris appeals court overturned the five-year ban on holding elected office imposed following her 2025 embezzlement conviction. The National Rally figure launched her fourth presidential campaign at party headquarters and highlighted her collaboration with Jordan Bardella, reversing expectations that Bardella would replace her as candidate during her period of ineligibility. Prediction markets reacted strongly: her implied chance of winning rose to 24.6% from 10% over the prior 24 hours, while contracts pricing her as the National Rally candidate stood at 92.5% YES. Even so, polling cited in the earlier report still showed Bardella with a slight edge in popularity, leaving the party’s internal balance and the wider 2027 race under close watch. Attention now turns to endorsements, policy announcements, polling shifts, rival responses including from Gabriel Attal and Éric Zemmour, and any prosecution appeal to the Court of Cassation, France’s highest court for civil and criminal cases.