The H2 2026 survey shows cautious sentiment, rising use of continuation vehicles for liquidity, and expectations that non-bank lenders will keep gaining share in fund finance.
Private capital firms are increasingly trying to stand out through operational efficiency, specialist expertise and client relationships rather than scale, Termgrid said in its Private Capital Survey H2 26. The survey found sentiment remained cautious, with 38% of respondents optimistic and 51% expecting conditions to stay broadly unchanged. Views diverged by region, with 45% of EMEA respondents optimistic versus 35% in the Americas, where macroeconomic conditions continue to shape spread expectations. Liquidity management remains a central theme as difficult fundraising conditions push firms toward alternative structures. Continuation vehicles are seen as the leading growth area, cited by 33% of respondents, followed by hybrid fund finance structures (combined financing approaches for funds) at 20% and NAV financing (loans backed by portfolio value) at 19%. More than half, or 53%, expect non-bank lenders to keep gaining market share in fund finance, with that view more common in Europe at 64% than in the Americas at 43%. The survey also pointed to a shift in how firms compete and where they are investing. Respondents working with firms with more than $50mn EBITDA highlighted liquidity solutions at 23% and flexible commercial terms at 21%, while those working with firms with less than $50mn EBITDA emphasized specialist investment strategies at 20% and co-investment opportunities at 19%. On technology, nearly 40% identified workflow automation as the biggest opportunity to improve team capacity, while only 16% said AI had been embedded into enterprise knowledge management. Accuracy at 32%, integration at 25% and data security at 20% were cited as the main barriers to wider AI adoption. Termgrid Co-founder and CEO Dipish Rai said firms that integrate technology most effectively into everyday workflows will be best positioned to compete.