AstraZeneca shares tumble 9% after Wainua misses 140-week heart trial goal

AstraZeneca shares fell sharply after its Phase 3 CARDIO-TTRansform trial of Wainua failed to meet its primary endpoint in transthyretin-mediated amyloid cardiomyopathy, or ATTR-CM, but analysts said the direct financial impact of the setback appears limited. Estimates from Citi, Jefferies and others suggest the trial miss reduced valuation models by roughly 2% to 4%, far less than the stock's roughly 6.2% drop on Thursday and additional 3% decline on Friday, indicating investors may be reassessing the premium long attached to AstraZeneca's pipeline execution rather than just the revenue loss from a single drug. Wainua had not been expected to become one of AstraZeneca's biggest products, yet its failure surprised investors because the program had been widely viewed as having a high probability of success, partly because of favorable precedent from Alnylam's rival drug Amvuttra. Jefferies said the outcome dents AstraZeneca's credibility, calling the failure surprising, while most analysts maintained that the company's long-term growth story remains intact and do not see the setback as threatening management's goal of reaching $80 billion in annual sales by 2030. Attention is now shifting to a series of upcoming late-stage readouts, including AVANZAR in lung cancer, SERENA-4 in breast cancer and cliramitug in ATTR cardiomyopathy. Jefferies described AVANZAR, expected in July or August, as the next major catalyst for sentiment, while Leerink said the Wainua miss puts even greater focus on the remaining binary events later this year. Most analysts retained positive recommendations on the stock, with Citi reiterating AstraZeneca as its top European pharmaceutical pick, Bank of America maintaining a Buy rating and Jefferies arguing investors should be buying the dip.