June meeting minutes showed policymakers split on whether rates will end the year above or below the current 3.5%-3.75% range, with Kalshi assigning a 62% chance the next increase comes before July 2027.
Kalshi traders are assigning a 54% probability that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates this year. The market also shows a 62% chance that the next rate increase occurs before July 2027. The shift in odds follows June meeting minutes showing policymakers divided on whether rates will finish the year above or below the current 3.5%-3.75% range, underscoring uncertainty over the policy path.