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Polymarket traders place large opposing bets on France-Spain semifinal

Polymarket traders place large opposing bets on France-Spain semifinal

Monitoring reports showed seven-figure and six-figure positions split between France and Spain ahead of the July 15 Beijing-time semifinal, with fresh PPP data highlighting another large France-backed wager.

Fact Check
The Arkham X post directly confirms that RJW1 bet on France and swisstony bet on Spain, each standing to win over $1M — matching the claim's seven-figure opposing positions and named accounts. Odaily's PPP monitoring newsflash confirms account mooseborzoi bought $550k of 'France advances' shares (a six-figure position) and that the France vs Spain semifinal kicks off July 15, 03:00 Beijing time. A second Odaily newsflash confirms additional six-figure betting activity. The Phemex article reiterates the RJW1/swisstony $1M opposing bets. All three named accounts and the opposing-bet framing are corroborated by primary and near-primary sources.
Summary

Large opposing positions continue to build on Polymarket ahead of France’s World Cup semifinal against Spain, scheduled for 3:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 15. PPP monitoring previously showed account mooseborzoi buying $550,000 worth of France-advancing shares at an average 59.9 cents for 925,017.8 shares, while address 0x83720820a8aa6c3f20ad71850e7a1a17d16c5223 added a $190,000 bet on France to beat Spain and reach the final. Separately, monitoring cited by @poly_beats said a whale returned after 46 days of inactivity and placed $489,900 against France across two contracts, and a newer report said traders RJW1 and swisstony had each wagered more than $1 million on opposite outcomes in the France-Spain game, with RJW1 backing France and swisstony backing Spain. PPP has now identified another wallet with more than $1.685 million in total profit that bought $487,000 worth of France in Polymarket’s “2026 World Cup semifinal France vs. Spain” market at an average entry price of 41.5 cents for 1,199,996.2 shares. The market is based only on the result within 90 minutes including stoppage time. The same user also holds a $962,000 position on France to win the World Cup, with an unrealized profit of $550,000. In prediction markets, contract prices are often used as a proxy for implied odds, so the concentration of large wagers underscores sharply divided trader conviction rather than any guaranteed outcome.

Terms & Concepts
  • Polymarket: A prediction market where users trade contracts tied to event outcomes.
  • prediction markets: Platforms where market prices reflect traders’ views on the likelihood of future events.
  • unrealized profit: A gain on an open position that has not yet been locked in by selling or settlement.