The new framework removes prediction markets from parts of the Gambling Act 2025, requires approval for every event contract and initially covers ADI Predictstreet and WagerWire’s Wire Markets.
Gibraltar’s Prediction Market Regulations 2026 took effect on July 13, creating a dedicated framework for prediction-market operators and exempting them from certain provisions of the territory’s Gambling Act 2025. The regime requires every event contract to be approved and certified by the Gambling Authority, with contracts needing to be clear, objectively settleable, resistant to manipulation and aligned with regulatory objectives. An independent supervisory panel will oversee the system, while operators must run their own controls against market abuse. Nigel Feetham KC MP, Gibraltar’s Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry, described the rules as “a bespoke regulatory regime for prediction markets, the first dedicated framework of its kind anywhere in the world.” He said the framework focuses on effective supervision and standards for market integrity, transparency, participant protection and financial crime prevention rather than on how products are labeled. Two operators are set to fall under the new regime. ADI Predictstreet, the official prediction-market partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026 and built on the ADI Chain blockchain, had already been licensed in Gibraltar as a betting intermediary on March 26 under the previous 2005 gambling law. Wire Markets, the platform of California-based WagerWire, received approval in principle in June and is targeting a launch around the start of the international club football season in August. WagerWire co-founder Travis Geiger called the framework “a landmark moment for the prediction market industry,” adding that it “gives operators the clarity they need to build for the long term.” The move sets Gibraltar apart from the broader European approach to event contracts. Earlier this month, ESMA (European Union securities watchdog) said event contracts that qualify as financial instruments are already barred from retail sale under binary-options rules. In June, nine national regulators jointly warned operators about consumer-protection risks, and the Netherlands had already ordered Polymarket to stop serving its market. The policy also has economic significance for Gibraltar, which derives roughly a quarter of its GDP from gambling-associated services. With the United Kingdom, its core market, lifting its Remote Gaming Duty to 40%, the territory appears to be using prediction markets as a fast-growing adjacent business line. Combined monthly trading volume across leading regulated prediction-market platforms reached $44.8 billion in June. Whether Gibraltar’s framework becomes a broader model or remains an outlier is still unclear.