Bitcoin briefly tops $65,000 after softer U.S. CPI, then pares gains

Bitcoin rose back above $65,000 after weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data strengthened bets that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in July, with the latest move also supported by a weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields. Bitfinex said the rebound was driven mainly by a repricing of macroeconomic expectations rather than steady Bitcoin-specific demand, describing it as "borrowed strength" amid limited spot buying, a negative Coinbase premium and uneven flows into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Bitcoin closed at $65,086 on July 14, up 4.4% and marking its highest close since June 22. The June Consumer Price Index fell 0.4% from the previous month, while annual inflation slowed to 3.5% from 4.2% and core inflation came in at 2.6%, below market expectations. Bitfinex said the softer data cut the implied odds of a July rate hike to around 12.3% from 42%, while the two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell as much as 14 basis points. Earlier reporting also showed lower producer-price data helping support risk assets and push Bitcoin toward $65,000. Still, on-chain data and market flows suggest the rebound is meeting resistance from multiple directions. Earlier analysis pointed to long-term holders realizing losses into strength and short-term holders taking profits at more than $4 million per day, while Bitfinex added that ETF flows remain inconsistent. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $424.7 million in net outflows on July 13 before drawing $181.1 million in net inflows on July 14, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for $138.9 million of that total. Strategy also reported no change in its Bitcoin holdings, which remained at 843,775 BTC, even as it raised $466.7 million in an equity offering to support corporate obligations. Bitfinex identified $68,000 to $68,300 as Bitcoin's key decision zone, citing the short-term holder cost basis near $68,073 and the second-quarter opening price around $68,266. The firm said sustained ETF inflows and stronger spot buying are needed for Bitcoin to establish acceptance above that range; otherwise, the token may remain stuck in its broader trading band. Options markets also reflected caution, with traders paying more for put options, and Bitfinex warned that annualized funding rates rising above 15% to 20% near resistance would raise the risk of another pullback. The firm said ETF flows, the Coinbase premium and price action around the $68,000-$68,300 band are the main indicators to watch as the rally remains closely tied to the interest-rate outlook.