The bank said expansion plans tied to President Lee Jae-myung’s 2030 goal look too optimistic, with SK Hynix’s additions and long fab construction timelines pointing to growth below target.
Bank of America said investor expectations for South Korean memory manufacturers are too bullish, arguing that planned expansion is unlikely to deliver President Lee Jae-myung’s goal of doubling capacity by 2030. The bank estimated average annual wafer capacity growth in South Korea would stay below 10% as older plants close and technology upgrades reduce effective output during transitions to more advanced processes. It added that SK Hynix’s added memory capacity by 2028 may reach only one-sixth of the original plan, while Samsung and SK Hynix could face construction and equipment installation timelines of up to 10 years for large new fabs in Gwangju and Jeolla.