CME FedWatch shows 88.8% odds of unchanged Fed rates in July
Market pricing cited by Odaily now points to a higher likelihood of steady policy in July, while September expectations still leave room for one 25 basis-point increase and a smaller chance of a larger cumulative move.
CME FedWatch data cited by Odaily shows markets now assign an 88.8% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged in July, with an 11.2% probability of a cumulative 25 basis-point hike. By September, pricing shifts modestly toward tighter policy, with a 51.2% probability of no change, a 44% probability of a cumulative 25 basis-point hike and a 4.7% probability of a cumulative 50 basis-point hike. The updated figures mark a notable change from earlier expectations that had implied a higher chance of rate increases by September. FedWatch is widely used to infer expected Federal Reserve policy from futures pricing.
- CME FedWatch: A tool that uses futures pricing to show market expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions.
- basis-point hike: An increase in interest rates measured in basis points, where 100 basis points equals 1 percentage point.
- futures pricing: Market prices of futures contracts, often used to infer investor expectations about future policy moves.