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Mizuho cuts Circle Internet Group to Underperform, lowers CRCL target to $50

Mizuho cuts Circle Internet Group to Underperform, lowers CRCL target to $50

Mizuho says Open USD’s partner-led reserve income model is pressuring USDC economics, while Circle also faces questions over Coinbase talks, Hyperliquid terms and margin resilience.

USDC
HYPE

Fact Check
Every specific element of the claim is confirmed by multiple independent sources dated July 14, 2026. The Block article confirms Mizuho's downgrade to Underperform, the target cut from $85 to $50, the OpenUSD and Coinbase renewal threat to USDC economics, JPMorgan trimming estimates, and Bernstein/William Blair arguing competitive fears are overstated. Barron's and TradingView independently corroborate the Underperform downgrade and $50 target (from $85).
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Summary

Mizuho downgraded Circle Internet Group to Underperform from Neutral and cut its price target to $50 from $85, arguing that Open USD could materially weaken the stablecoin issuer’s economics. Analysts led by Dan Dolev said Open USD “could fundamentally alter CRCL’s business model” by changing how reserve income flows to distribution partners. The bank raised its estimate for Circle’s 2027 distribution and transaction expense ratio to 73% from 64% and cut its 2027 adjusted EBITDA forecast to $699 million from $1.09 billion, roughly 25% below the analyst consensus cited in the report. Mizuho said higher interest rates could support reserve income but may not fully offset pressure from changing stablecoin economics, while Coinbase’s participation in Open USD may strengthen its hand ahead of an expected August renegotiation of its revenue-sharing agreement with Circle. Separate pressure has also come from JPMorgan, which cut forecasts for Circle and Coinbase after a new USDC revenue-sharing arrangement with Hyperliquid. The downgrade comes as Circle continues expanding USDC infrastructure, with circulation at about $73 billion as of July 13 and final approval to establish Circle National Trust, while also testing cross-border and merchant payment use cases in Japan with JCB.

Terms & Concepts
  • stablecoin: A digital token designed to maintain a fixed value, typically by being tied to a fiat currency such as the U.S. dollar.
  • reserve income: Earnings generated from the assets backing a stablecoin, often a key source of revenue for issuers and partners.
  • adjusted EBITDA: A profitability measure used to show operating performance before certain costs, interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.