China Q2 GDP growth slows to 4.3%, missing 4.5% forecast

China's economy expanded 4.3% in the second quarter from a year earlier, missing economists' 4.5% forecast and slowing from 5% in the first quarter, marking its weakest annual pace since the fourth quarter of 2022. The reading also fell below the lower end of the government's 4.5% to 5% full-year target range, highlighting an increasingly unbalanced recovery in which export demand and manufacturing strength have not translated into stronger domestic consumption, investment or confidence. Exports rose 27% in June from a year earlier in dollar terms, accelerating from 19.4% in May, helped by demand for electronics and information-technology products including computing servers and data-center equipment. Industrial production rose 5.3% in June, while retail sales increased just 1%. Fixed-asset investment fell 5.7% in the first half and real-estate development investment dropped 18%, the steepest decline since comparable records began in 1992, underscoring the continuing drag from the property slump. The GDP deflator turned positive for the first time since early 2023, though analysts said that appeared to reflect higher import prices including crude oil rather than a clear easing of underlying deflationary pressure. Investors are now watching for the Chinese Communist Party's Politburo meeting later in July for signals on whether authorities bring forward fiscal spending and expand infrastructure investment. A broad stimulus package is still seen as unlikely because first-half growth of 4.7% keeps the annual target within reach and policymakers remain reluctant to take on significantly more debt.