Indian rupee ends nearly flat at 96.2550 per dollar near one-month low

The rupee is seen weakening further at Friday's open after a four-session slide, with rising oil prices, weaker risk appetite and only measured RBI intervention keeping it close to its record low.

Summary

The Indian rupee is expected to extend its decline at Friday's open, with traders indicating a 96.40-96.44 per dollar start after Thursday's 96.3450 close, as higher oil prices and worsening risk sentiment weigh on the currency. The rupee has fallen for four straight sessions and now sits less than 0.5% from its record low of 96.96 touched in May. Traders said the Reserve Bank of India has been intervening almost daily in both the spot and non-deliverable forward markets, but the scale has been relatively measured given the pressure on the currency. The rupee has weakened despite a rebound in portfolio flows, with foreign investors buying about $1.5 billion of Indian equities so far this month after more than $5 billion of outflows in June, while debt inflows have stayed positive at roughly $500 million this month following more than $3 billion in June. Brent crude hovered near $85 a barrel after a roughly 12% weekly rally driven by escalating hostilities in the Middle East and concerns over oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing headwinds for the rupee.

Terms & Concepts
  • non-deliverable forward markets: Offshore derivatives markets where currencies are settled in cash rather than by physical delivery of the local currency.
  • Strait of Hormuz: A critical shipping route for global crude supplies, where disruptions can quickly drive oil prices higher.
  • portfolio flows: Cross-border investment into assets such as equities and bonds that can influence currency demand and supply.