The warning stops short of a baseline forecast, with Macklem stressing that consecutive increases would require a lasting rise in oil prices rather than a temporary shock.
Bank of Canada's Macklem said a sustained spike in oil prices could still force back-to-back interest-rate hikes, while emphasizing that such an outcome is not the base case. The remark underscores how persistent energy-driven inflation can complicate monetary policy, as central banks weigh whether a commodity shock is temporary or broad enough to threaten price stability.