The company said downstream and power should improve, while LNG trading weakens and Middle East disruptions cut quarterly production by about 210 kboe/d.
TotalEnergies outlined preliminary second-quarter 2026 indicators showing stronger crude and refining markets, with Brent averaging $103.8 a barrel and its European Refining Margin Marker at $13.5 a barrel. Hydrocarbon production is expected to be nearly 2.4 Mboe/d, supported by organic growth in line with quarterly guidance of 4%, even as the Middle East conflict reduced output by around 210 kboe/d. The company said that hit was lower than the 360 kboe/d guidance given last quarter because offshore United Arab Emirates production ramped up during the period and output restarted in other countries in the region in June. Still, a significant share of that production could not be lifted and will be recognized in Exploration & Production results using end-June crude prices of less than $70/b. TotalEnergies expects Exploration & Production cash flow to rise by around $1 billion from the first quarter, while integrated LNG results should fall significantly on weaker gas trading in a flat to declining European market. Integrated Power cash flow is expected to increase strongly after the EPH transaction closed on April 29, and downstream earnings and cash flow are seen rising sharply on better refining and petrochemical margins, steady strong oil trading and seasonal support in Marketing & Services. The company also anticipates a $1 billion to $1.5 billion working-capital decrease, quarterly net investments in line with its $15 billion annual guidance, and a 2-point improvement in the gearing ratio (debt-to-capital measure) by the end of the quarter.