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Reuters poll shows ECB seen holding July 23 rates, hiking again in September

Reuters poll shows ECB seen holding July 23 rates, hiking again in September

Markets and economist surveys point to a July hold at the ECB’s 2.25% deposit rate after June’s 25 basis-point hike, with renewed energy-price pressures keeping a possible September increase to 2.5% in view.

Fact Check
The primary Reuters poll article corroborates the claim in full: a July 23 hold at 2.25% after June's 25bp hike, with a September hike most likely, driven by an energy-price resurgence. Morningstar UK independently confirms the hold, the prior hike to 2.25%, and a widely expected September 25bp hike that would lift the deposit rate to 2.50%. The claim's 'possible September increase to 2.5%' matches a 25bp move from 2.25%. All specifics align across sources.
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Summary

The European Central Bank is widely expected to keep its deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% on July 23 after a 25 basis-point increase in June, with Reuters and Bloomberg surveys indicating many economists still expect one more rate hike this year, most likely in September, which would lift the rate to 2.5%. Officials and analysts say the path is uncertain because renewed U.S.-Iran conflict has pushed oil prices higher, complicating the inflation outlook even as growth remains weak. ECB President Christine Lagarde said on July 1 that inflation and growth risks were more balanced, while economists said a September move will depend on whether energy-driven price pressures persist or fade.

Terms & Concepts
  • deposit rate: The interest rate the ECB pays on funds that commercial banks place with it.
  • basis-point: One hundredth of a percentage point.
  • second-round effects: When an initial price shock, such as higher energy costs, spreads into wages and broader consumer prices.