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U.S. pending home sales fall 5.4% in June, missing flat forecast

U.S. pending home sales fall 5.4% in June, missing flat forecast

Higher mortgage rates, record home prices and weak builder sentiment underscored mounting affordability pressures across the U.S. housing market in June and July.

Fact Check
The NAR primary release directly confirms a 5.4% month-over-month decline in June pending home sales (index to 72.5). WSJ confirms its economist poll forecast 'no change' (flat), matching the claim that the drop missed a flat forecast. CNBC and Reuters both corroborate the 5.4% figure and the 'missed expectations' framing (Reuters cited a -0.5% consensus). All key facts—the percentage, the timing (June), and the miss versus a flat/near-flat forecast—are consistent across the official source and multiple outlets.
Summary

U.S. homes going under contract fell more than expected in June as elevated borrowing costs and record prices continued to weigh on buyers. The National Association of Realtors said pending home sales, a measure of signed contracts on existing homes, dropped 5.4% from May and were down 0.3% from June 2025, missing analysts' expectations. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said the highest mortgage rates in nearly a year and a record-high national median home price were making the market particularly difficult for first-time homebuyers. Separate data from the National Association of Home Builders showed sentiment among single-family builders fell to 34 in July from an upwardly revised 36 in June, remaining below 40 for a 15th straight month, as builders cited elevated mortgage rates, costly land, rising material prices and skilled labor shortages. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.64%, while more builders cut prices and leaned on incentives, highlighting persistent affordability strains despite congressional housing legislation aimed at easing permitting and expanding supply.

Terms & Concepts
  • Pending home sales: A housing-market indicator based on signed contracts to buy existing homes, often used to gauge near-term sales activity.
  • 30-year fixed mortgage: A home loan with an interest rate that stays unchanged for 30 years, making it a benchmark for U.S. borrowing costs.