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Kalshi, Polymarket traders cut odds of CLARITY Act despite Senate optimism

Kalshi, Polymarket traders cut odds of CLARITY Act despite Senate optimism

Prediction markets remained cautious as Senate supporters including President Donald Trump and Senator Bill Hagerty pressed for passage, while ethics concerns, Democratic resistance and the 60-vote hurdle clouded the bill’s path before the August recess.

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Fact Check
The CoinDesk primary article and corroborating reports (cryptonews.net, AOL, Yahoo Finance) confirm that Polymarket traders cut the odds of the CLARITY Act / crypto market structure legislation passing this year to a record low (about 32%, down from 82% in February), driven by Senate delays and unresolved ethics provisions, consistent with the claim. The claim's Polymarket component and the ethics-provision framing are strongly supported. The Kalshi-specific pricing detail is less directly documented in the retrieved sources, but the overall prediction-market weakening described in the claim is well established, so the claim is likely true.
Summary

Prediction market traders remain cautious on the CLARITY Act’s prospects even as President Donald Trump and Senate supporters including Senator Bill Hagerty publicly pressed for passage. The bill, which would more clearly divide oversight of digital-asset securities and digital commodities between the SEC and CFTC, passed the House on July 17, 2025, by a 294-134 margin and cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14, 2026, in a 15-9 vote with two Democratic crossovers. But Senate passage still likely requires 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, leaving Republicans in need of Democratic support. Hagerty said the biggest obstacle may be political resistance rather than policy, arguing that some Democrats may oppose the bill because it would give Trump a legislative win and citing their unanimous procedural vote against advancing it. At the same time, ethics objections tied to Trump family crypto interests, along with demands for stronger anti-fraud, market-manipulation and investor-protection provisions, remain central obstacles as the August 2026 recess is increasingly viewed as the practical deadline for Senate action.

Terms & Concepts
  • CLARITY Act: Proposed U.S. legislation designed to set clearer regulatory rules for digital assets and divide oversight between federal agencies.
  • digital commodities: Digital assets that would fall under commodity-style regulation rather than securities oversight under the proposed framework.
  • filibuster: A Senate procedure that can effectively require 60 votes to move most legislation to a final vote.