Lituus Foundation says the proposed settlement layer aims to resolve contested event contracts without relying on a company, committee, multisignature wallet, or governance council.
Augur has relaunched with a proposed decentralized settlement layer for disputed prediction-market outcomes and a live two-month token migration exercise called the Moon Fork. The Lituus Foundation said the system, detailed in the Augur Lituus whitepaper, is designed as infrastructure other prediction markets and protocols could use to settle contested events without depending on a company, committee, multisignature wallet (shared-control crypto wallet), or governance council. The model separates outcome resolution from trading, liquidity management, user interfaces, and distribution. The foundation said its design relies on economic incentives intended to make support for an accurate outcome more rational than backing a false one, and the whitepaper compares decentralized oracle systems by examining how they may behave when participants have a financial motive to sway the result. Augur is testing the mechanism through a public fork tied to a prediction market connected to NASA’s Artemis II mission. During the two-month migration period, REP holders must choose which version of the protocol to support by moving their tokens. The foundation said tokens left in abandoned versions would lose their economic relevance. Lituus Foundation co-founder Phill said, “Prediction markets are only as credible as their resolution process,” adding that as such markets grow, the key issue is whether they can determine what actually happened when “billions of dollars depend on the answer.” The relaunch comes as prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi draw more users and as Wall Street banks tighten employee rules around event contracts. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America have introduced or revised policies aimed at reducing insider-trading and conflict-of-interest risks, a separate issue from Augur’s focus on how disputed contracts are settled after an event occurs. The foundation has not provided a launch date for general use of the Lituus resolution layer.