Polymarket shows 94% odds of July Fed hold after 3.5% CPI

Bitcoin spot ETFs reportedly drew $132.3 million in net inflows the same day, underscoring how traders are repositioning ahead of comments from Powell.

Summary

Polymarket, a prediction market (event-betting platform), was pricing a 94% probability that the Federal Reserve would keep rates unchanged in July after annual CPI reached 3.5%. On the same day, Bitcoin spot ETFs reportedly recorded $132.3 million in net inflows, suggesting crypto investors were adjusting positions before Powell speaks. The combination points to a market reading that sticky inflation has not materially shifted expectations for an immediate policy move, while ETF demand indicates continued institutional-style interest in Bitcoin exposure.

Terms & Concepts
  • Polymarket: A prediction market where users trade on event outcomes.
  • CPI: Consumer Price Index, a gauge of inflation.
  • spot ETFs: Funds that hold the underlying asset directly.