Lookonchain said gud.hl bought 12.354 million Polymarket shares on Argentina at about $0.10 each, a position now valued near $6,177 after the price fell to roughly $0.001.
Polymarket user gud.hl bought 12.354 million shares predicting Argentina to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup at about $0.10 each, investing roughly $1.23 million, according to Lookonchain on July 20. As market expectations shifted, the position’s price fell to about $0.001, reducing its value to around $6,177 and implying a cumulative loss of about $1.223 million, or 99.5%. The trade illustrates how prediction-market positions can swing sharply as odds are repriced long before the underlying event is decided.