Dimon said rising U.S. debt, deficits and geopolitical tensions could pressure long-term Treasury yields, while ETF flows show investors favoring short-term government debt even as equity inflows remain strong.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said investors are not fully pricing in geopolitical and fiscal risks and that he would not buy either equities or long-dated U.S. Treasurys at current levels. In remarks to CNBC on July 20 and in a later Master Investor podcast appearance, Dimon cited the war in Ukraine, the war involving Iran, U.S.-China tensions, rising military spending and widening U.S. deficits, while warning that the country’s roughly $39 trillion debt load could eventually push yields higher as bond vigilantes demand more compensation. He said that even if inflation is 2%, the 10-year Treasury yield should probably be around 4% to 4.5%, and he also would not buy the broader stock market at current valuations, though he would still consider individual companies. ETF flow data meanwhile shows investors have been favoring very short-term Treasury exposure rather than long-duration bonds, with the iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) taking in $47.5 billion this year and ranking fifth among all ETF inflows, even as equity ETFs absorbed nearly half of more than $1 trillion added to the U.S. ETF market at midyear.