The bank sees Brent averaging $80 in the fourth quarter and $75 next year if tensions ease, but says disrupted Hormuz flows could still send prices above $120 and tighten diesel markets.
Goldman Sachs said Brent crude could climb above $120 a barrel in a worst-case scenario where oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain below 45% of prewar levels, while its base case calls for Brent to average $80 in the fourth quarter and $75 next year if Middle East tensions ease. The bank said renewed military clashes between the US and Iran, a sharp drop in Persian Gulf shipments and risks of wider disruption into the Red Sea are keeping pressure on oil prices, even as slower Chinese crude imports and more elastic global demand could temper gains. Goldman also said the diesel market is more exposed than crude to supply shocks because inventories were already low before the war and further strain from strikes on Russian refining facilities, hurricanes, heat waves and refinery maintenance delays could deepen shortages. It recommended a trade positioned for a short-term rise in European diesel prices as a hedge against geopolitical risk.