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Reuters survey shows Fed seen holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29

Reuters survey shows Fed seen holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29

Economists unanimously expect no July rate change, while CME FedWatch market pricing still implies a 31.5% chance of a 25-basis-point hike and a 68.5% chance of a hold.

Fact Check
Multiple independent sources reporting on the same late-July 2026 Reuters poll corroborate the exact figures in the claim. VT Markets and FXStreet both confirm 104 economists forecasting no change at the July 29 meeting and 78 expecting steady policy through all of 2026. KuCoin's headline explicitly states '78 out of 104 Economists Predict Fed to Keep Rates Unchanged in 2026.' The 3.50%-3.75% target range is consistent with prior 2026 Reuters polls cited by FXStreet and Bybit. All numeric details align across sources with no conflicting evidence.
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Summary

A Reuters survey of 104 economists showed unanimous expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29. The poll also found 78 of 104 economists expect the benchmark rate to remain unchanged through all of 2026, little changed from 78 of 102 in the previous month's survey. By contrast, CME FedWatch market pricing indicates a 68.5% probability of no change at the July Federal Open Market Committee meeting and a 31.5% probability of a 25-basis-point increase, suggesting markets see more risk of a hike than economists do.

Terms & Concepts
  • federal funds rate: The benchmark U.S. overnight interest rate set by the Federal Reserve.
  • Federal Open Market Committee: The Federal Reserve panel that sets U.S. interest rates.
  • basis points: Hundredths of a percentage point.