US oil tops $90 as Middle East tensions lift crude futures
WTI rose above $90 on July 23 and prediction-market odds of July gains above $95 and $100 increased as traders reacted to escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and reported military action.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed back above $90 a barrel on July 23, rising more than 4% from the previous session, while Brent crude had already moved above $90 on July 19 for the first time since mid-June. The rally came amid worsening Middle East tensions, including a Wall Street Journal report that the U.S. was reinforcing its regional military presence after four U.S. troops were killed, President Donald Trump's warning that Iran would pay several times over whenever U.S. troops were killed, and his statement that the U.S. would strike Pickaxe Mountain very hard soon. Separately, Polymarket pricing tracked by PPP showed traders raising expectations for further gains, with implied odds of WTI topping $95 in July rising to 48% and odds of exceeding $100 rising to 32%, as the article linked the move to market chatter about reported U.S. B-1 bomber strikes on Iranian Revolutionary Guard targets.
- West Texas Intermediate crude futures: U.S. oil benchmark contracts that track expected prices for West Texas Intermediate crude delivered at a future date.
- Brent crude futures: Futures tied to Brent crude, the main international benchmark used to price much of the world's oil.
- implied probability: The market-implied chance of an event occurring, inferred from prediction-market pricing.