British consumer confidence jumps to six-month high in July as political change lifts mood

British consumer confidence improved sharply in July, with GfK’s index rising to -17 from -23 in June, its highest level since January and the biggest month-on-month increase since November 2023. The reading was well above a Reuters poll forecast for a modest improvement to -21. The survey, based on 2,012 responses collected between July 1 and July 14, suggested households were encouraged by expectations of a political fresh start, warm summer weather and the feel-good effect of the FIFA World Cup after a prolonged period of economic uncertainty. Neil Bellamy, GfK's consumer insights director, said hopes tied to Andy Burnham replacing Keir Starmer in Downing Street were likely to have contributed to the rebound. The poll was conducted after Burnham won an election to enter parliament in June but before he became Labour leader and prime minister, and before renewed conflict in the Gulf drove up energy prices and revived investor concerns about inflation. GfK said households’ assessment of the economy over the past year rose 10 points to -39, the highest since late 2024, while expectations for the coming 12 months improved by eight points to -28, the strongest since October 2024. Intentions to make major purchases also increased by eight points to -12, the highest level since the start of the year. The upbeat survey was broadly in line with other recent UK economic data, including a temporary slowdown in inflation published shortly after Burnham became prime minister on Monday. Since then, his government has announced a reduction in tax on electricity bills, a lower cap for bus fares, and a 20% cut in business rates for pubs, clubs, and live music venues.